Despite a business model promising innovation in affordable housing, Boxabl finds itself navigating complex financial terrain as it rushes toward a potentially transformative SPAC merger. The Las Vegas-based modular housing startup, once lauded for its foldable, manufactured homes that arrive ready to live in, is now facing growing scrutiny from investors and regulators alike. Boxabl’s recent decision to go public via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) comes amid spiraling losses, operational bottlenecks, and regulatory uncertainties that challenge the narrative of a booming business disrupting the housing crisis. With new financial data disclosed as part of the merger documentation, questions are mounting about whether Boxabl’s SPAC gamble will be enough to sustain its bold vision—or merely a costly temporary patch.
SPAC Merger: An Accelerator or a Lifeline?
Boxabl announced in May 2024 that it plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Forge Global Holdings, a move that could raise hundreds of millions in capital and provide the firm with much-needed liquidity (Crunchbase News, 2024). The company’s public listing, which may occur in late 2024 or early 2025, is being hailed by some as a springboard for growth. However, a closer look reveals that this may be a financial necessity rather than a strategic expansion.
According to Boxabl’s disclosures in its regulatory filings for the merger, the company recorded a loss of $33.4 million in 2022 and $44.2 million in 2023. For the first quarter of 2024 alone, Boxabl posted a staggering $12.3 million net loss while generating only $899,000 in revenue from just 12 houses sold. These numbers cast a long shadow over the core health of the business.
The model for the SPAC merger, once a trendy shortcut to the public market, is now raising eyebrows. According to CNBC Markets and The Motley Fool, the SPAC landscape has dramatically cooled in 2024, with over 70% of SPACs underperforming post-merger due to inflated valuations and immature business models. Boxabl is attempting to buck this trend, but the macroeconomic environment and investor confidence in SPACs remain uncertain heading into 2025.
Understanding Boxabl’s Financial Undercurrents
Boxabl’s balance sheet indicates underlying weaknesses, particularly in debt levels and cash utilization. As of the first quarter of 2024, the firm held total liabilities exceeding $51 million, with more than $11 million coming from revenue-share-based debt. Given these numbers, even a successful SPAC merger might only offer temporary relief rather than sustainable transformation.
| Fiscal Year | Net Revenue | Net Loss | Total Liabilities |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $11.4M | $33.4M | $39M+ |
| 2023 | $3.3M | $44.2M | $51M+ |
| Q1 2024 | $899K | $12.3M | N/A |
Even more concerning is Boxabl’s extremely low revenue per unit sold. From its founding through April 2024, Boxabl had built only 405 homes. That contrasts sharply with the expectations it set during earlier crowdfunding rounds, promising rapid production scaleups beginning in 2021. When compared with modular competitors like Vantem or Plant Prefab, this production rate appears insufficient to meet both financial and investor expectations (MarketWatch, 2024).
Regulatory and Legal Hurdles
Boxabl’s upcoming merger also attracts attention from federal regulators. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued subpoenas to Boxabl and its co-founders in early 2024, requesting investor communications, compensation records, and business agreements. This development introduces a credibility issue just as the firm is courting public investors. Per the FTC’s latest statements on SPAC oversight, the regulatory body is tightening its watch on firms leveraging public listings without sustainable financial practices or clear operational visibility.
Industry watchers from Investopedia and McKinsey Global Institute emphasize that public market transitions, especially via SPACs, require far greater disclosure and long-term durability in operations—areas where Boxabl still lags. The legal scrutiny could delay or hinder the merger and may necessitate further equity dilution to settle legal costs and compliance upgrades.
AI and Automation in the Housing Industry: Missed Opportunities?
Another issue for Boxabl is its missed integration of advanced automation and AI in the tech stack. In 2025, companies that thrive in the prefab housing space increasingly leverage AI-driven supply chain models to reduce waste, optimize delivery scheduling, and improve design-to-manufacture cycles. According to DeepMind and OpenAI, generative AI has facilitated hypercustomization of floor plans and energy simulations in real time for housing startups in Europe and Asia, providing a proof-of-concept for smarter modular construction.
Firms like ICON (3D-printed housing) and Mighty Buildings have successfully paired automation with AI to reduce unit costs and production time, improving margins by up to 60%. Boxabl’s current assembly lines rely heavily on manual processes despite calls from internal engineers and external observers to incorporate machine learning into design modularity. This relative lag may strand the company behind industry leaders as the AI wave continues to accelerate throughout 2025.
Investor Sentiment and Outlook
The mood among crowd-funders and early-stage investors is turning cautious. Boxabl raised over $140 million through Regulation A+ offerings, fueled by social media promotions and a high-profile endorsement loop that included Tesla CEO Elon Musk reportedly living in a Boxabl unit in 2021. However, enthusiasm is waning in light of financial underperformance.
Analysts from AI Trends and The Gradient note that while niche tech ventures often pivot and recover, the threshold for redemption narrows sharply once public expectations enter the equation. With increased availability of high-throughput AI design platforms for architecture—as seen in the rise of NVIDIA’s Omniverse for Prefab Housing, now widely adopted in Asia-Pacific markets—investors may prefer diversified portfolios over single bets like Boxabl.
Moreover, competition is heating up. As of Q1 2025, at least six AI-powered tokenized housing ventures have entered Series B fundraising, including modular housing projects in Germany, the UAE, and New Zealand—all aiming to solve affordability at scale with better capital efficiency.
What Comes Next for Boxabl?
Looking ahead, Boxabl’s fate may hinge on whether it can correct course operationally and strategically. Achieving unit profitability, incorporating automated AI design and logistics systems, and resolving regulatory inquiries are immediate requirements if the firm hopes to retain investor confidence post-SPAC.
The market for affordable housing remains strong, buoyed by demographic trends and global urbanization. According to Pew Research and the World Economic Forum, over 1.6 billion people still lack adequate housing, providing a compelling tailwind for modular providers. But attracting funding in 2025 will no longer rely on good storytelling alone—it will require transparent finances, scalable tech, and precise execution.